Photo: Farmland, Eastern Washington. © 2007 Delena Norris-Tull.
The Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Crops
Research summary and commentary by Dr. Delena Norris-Tull, Professor Emerita of Science Education, University of Montana Western, October 2021.
The current economic system “favours the short term over the long term” (Dahl, 1996, p. 22). The short-term economic view often creates long-term problems. “For instance, reforestation projects favour fast-growing trees to produce a quick return on investment” (Dahl, 1996, p. 22).
The 2016 report, Climate change and food security: risks and responses, published by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations states that (page 1), “The effects of climate change on our ecosystems are already severe and widespread, and ensuring food security in the face of climate change is among the most daunting challenges facing humankind. While some of the problems associated with climate change are emerging gradually, action is urgently needed now in order to allow enough time to build resilience into agricultural production systems… FAO estimates that, to satisfy the growing demand driven by population growth and diet changes, food production will have to increase by at least 60 percent in the next decades… It is estimated that 500 million smallholder farms in the developing world are supporting almost 2 billion people.”
“When (climate) conditions change, even slightly, even in a direction that could seem more favourable, the plants and animals present will be impacted, some will become less productive, or even disappear. Some of these impacts can be easily predicted…Others are more complex to predict, like the effect of a certain climatic change on a whole ecosystem, because each element will react differently and interact with the other. For example, many cultivated plants react favourably, in controlled conditions, to an increase of CO2 in the atmosphere. But at the same time, many weeds also react favourably. The results, in the field, can be an increase or decrease in yield, of the cultivated plant depending on weeds competing for nutrients and water and on remedial agricultural practices. Pests and diseases are likely to move, following climate change, thus arriving in areas less prepared to them, biologically and institutionally, with potentially higher negative impacts” (FAO, 2016, page 3).
As climates change, these changes will cause changes in water availability. Some areas will become drier, suffering more severe drought. Currently cultivated plants that require large amounts of water may soon become insupportable. While crops in other areas, impacted by increased occurrences of severe weather, including hurricanes, will not be well adapted to sudden severe rainfall. And root crops, such as potatoes and beets, that rely on agricultural practices that encourage soil loss, may quickly become a food of the past. Rises in sea level will create coastal zones with soils high in salinity. Both crop species and native plants not adapted to saline soils will disappear. Pollinators not adapted to the changes in climate will also be at risk.
The world is ill-prepared to respond to the reality that climate change will “fundamentally alter global food production patterns… (While) some high latitude regions are expected to benefit…from higher temperatures and longer growing seasons… other environmental conditions, such as soil quality issues in the far north, will likely constrain expansion” (FAO, 2016, page 8).
It is clear that, globally, nations will have to develop more sustainable agricultural systems and more diverse crops. Refer to the section within this website titled "The Dust Bowl Revisited," for more information on the future of agriculture. Particularly, note the section on the book Natural Capitalism.
In a 2022 report that assesses the potential effects of climate change on crops in southern Africa, Agricultural and food system resilience: Increasing capacity & resiliency, researchers from Europe and Africa worked with the Global Challenges Research Fund to develop a programme, GCRF-AFRICAP, to enable food producers to assess the impacts that climate change may have on local food production, and to recommend strategies to improve local long-term production outlooks. They conducted their research in four countries: Malawi, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zambia. The 80-member team developed an online tool, iFeed, to assist countries in assessing the potential impacts climate change may have on local food production, and to recommend strategies to minimize the damaging effects of climate change.
The GCRF-AFRICAP team identified the following trends (page 34):
To avoid the devastating affects of nutritional deficiencies and crop failures, the GCRF-AFRICAP team recommended the following:
References:
Next Sections:
The Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Crops
Research summary and commentary by Dr. Delena Norris-Tull, Professor Emerita of Science Education, University of Montana Western, October 2021.
The current economic system “favours the short term over the long term” (Dahl, 1996, p. 22). The short-term economic view often creates long-term problems. “For instance, reforestation projects favour fast-growing trees to produce a quick return on investment” (Dahl, 1996, p. 22).
The 2016 report, Climate change and food security: risks and responses, published by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations states that (page 1), “The effects of climate change on our ecosystems are already severe and widespread, and ensuring food security in the face of climate change is among the most daunting challenges facing humankind. While some of the problems associated with climate change are emerging gradually, action is urgently needed now in order to allow enough time to build resilience into agricultural production systems… FAO estimates that, to satisfy the growing demand driven by population growth and diet changes, food production will have to increase by at least 60 percent in the next decades… It is estimated that 500 million smallholder farms in the developing world are supporting almost 2 billion people.”
“When (climate) conditions change, even slightly, even in a direction that could seem more favourable, the plants and animals present will be impacted, some will become less productive, or even disappear. Some of these impacts can be easily predicted…Others are more complex to predict, like the effect of a certain climatic change on a whole ecosystem, because each element will react differently and interact with the other. For example, many cultivated plants react favourably, in controlled conditions, to an increase of CO2 in the atmosphere. But at the same time, many weeds also react favourably. The results, in the field, can be an increase or decrease in yield, of the cultivated plant depending on weeds competing for nutrients and water and on remedial agricultural practices. Pests and diseases are likely to move, following climate change, thus arriving in areas less prepared to them, biologically and institutionally, with potentially higher negative impacts” (FAO, 2016, page 3).
As climates change, these changes will cause changes in water availability. Some areas will become drier, suffering more severe drought. Currently cultivated plants that require large amounts of water may soon become insupportable. While crops in other areas, impacted by increased occurrences of severe weather, including hurricanes, will not be well adapted to sudden severe rainfall. And root crops, such as potatoes and beets, that rely on agricultural practices that encourage soil loss, may quickly become a food of the past. Rises in sea level will create coastal zones with soils high in salinity. Both crop species and native plants not adapted to saline soils will disappear. Pollinators not adapted to the changes in climate will also be at risk.
The world is ill-prepared to respond to the reality that climate change will “fundamentally alter global food production patterns… (While) some high latitude regions are expected to benefit…from higher temperatures and longer growing seasons… other environmental conditions, such as soil quality issues in the far north, will likely constrain expansion” (FAO, 2016, page 8).
It is clear that, globally, nations will have to develop more sustainable agricultural systems and more diverse crops. Refer to the section within this website titled "The Dust Bowl Revisited," for more information on the future of agriculture. Particularly, note the section on the book Natural Capitalism.
In a 2022 report that assesses the potential effects of climate change on crops in southern Africa, Agricultural and food system resilience: Increasing capacity & resiliency, researchers from Europe and Africa worked with the Global Challenges Research Fund to develop a programme, GCRF-AFRICAP, to enable food producers to assess the impacts that climate change may have on local food production, and to recommend strategies to improve local long-term production outlooks. They conducted their research in four countries: Malawi, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zambia. The 80-member team developed an online tool, iFeed, to assist countries in assessing the potential impacts climate change may have on local food production, and to recommend strategies to minimize the damaging effects of climate change.
The GCRF-AFRICAP team identified the following trends (page 34):
- "Nutritional deficiencies can be reduced by 2050, although this requires substantial increases to crop yields. Without these increases, nutritional improvements will require agricultural areas to expand and/or increased food imports.
- Maize crop failure rates could increase by more than 50% by 2050 under the most optimistic future climate scenarios... and more than double under the worse-case scenarios... Average maize yields could fall by as much as a quarter under some scenarios.
- Farmers are already seeing increasing impacts on crop production due to pests and diseases, in places accounting for nearly a third of annual yield losses.
- Increases in precipitation intensities will likely increase soil erosion in Tanzania and Malawi, negatively impacting agricultural yields.
- Drought and high temperatures in Malawi, Tanzania, and Zambia will increase the cyanide toxicity of cassava, making it harder to process into safe, edible forms.
- Although the impacts of climatic changes will be felt differently by different communities, owing to differing exposures, vulnerabilities, and capacities to adapt, female smallholders will be disproportionately affected."
To avoid the devastating affects of nutritional deficiencies and crop failures, the GCRF-AFRICAP team recommended the following:
- "Investing in climate services; supporting climate-smart agriculture (CSA) practices; improving water management; and aligning and coordinating nutrition, agricultural, and economic development objectives. If policy processes are not integrated, incoherence will exacerbate land-use conflicts, environmental degradation, and climate change.
- Supporting long-term capacity building interventions at sub-national levels, including targeted support for the most vulnerable groups. Such measures can improve adoption of CSA practices and technologies.
- Linking seed systems to long-term climate information to make them more resilient. Identifying future conditions can inform trade-offs in crop breeding, such as between shortening growing seasons and increasing temperatures.
- Diversifying crop production and increasing imports of nutrient-dense foods. This will enable more diverse diets and achieve nutrition security in the face of increasing demographic and environmental pressures in the coming decades.
- Proactive efforts to strengthen tools, networks and capacities, across a broad spectrum of stakeholders, to share knowledge and develop integrated solutions."
References:
- Dahl, A.L. (1996). The Eco Principle: Ecology and Economics in Symbiosis. Oxford: George Ronald Publisher.
- Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. (2016). Climate change and food security: risks and responses. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.
- GCRF-AFRICAP. (March 2022). Agricultural and food system resilience: Increasing capacity and advising policy. Global Challenges Research Fund.
Next Sections: