MANAGEMENT OF INVASIVE PLANTS IN THE WESTERN USA
  • Defining the Problem
    • What is a Weed? >
      • Federal Definitions of Noxious Weeds
    • Costs of invasive plants
    • Human Factor
    • Challenges of Invasive Plants
    • Wildfires in the Western USA >
      • Forest Fires: Structure
      • Bark Beetles & Forest Ecosystems
      • Rangeland Fires
    • Climate Change Impacts on Plants >
      • Climate Change: CO2, NO, UV, Ozone Impacts on Plants
      • Climate Change Impacts on Crops
      • Climate Change Impacts on C4 Plants
      • Climate Change Impacts on Rangeland
    • What are we doing?
  • Focus of this Project
    • Why Western States? >
      • Audience for these reports
    • History: Are we doomed to repeat it? >
      • Dust Bowl Re-visited >
        • China: Past & Present
        • UN Biodiversity Report
    • Policy vs. Practice
    • Ecosystems & Economics >
      • Reductionist Approach to science
      • Ecology & Feminism
      • Systems View of Life
      • Ecosystems Health
      • Economic Growth
      • Impact of the Petrochemical Industry
      • Interrelation of Economics & Ecology
    • Federal Agencies >
      • Federal Agencies and Invasive Species
      • History of Coordination with States
      • Challenges of Coordination between Federal Agencies
      • Collaboration or Confusion
    • Organizations to assist landowners
    • Federal Legislation on Invasive Species >
      • 1930s Federal Laws on Invasive Species
      • Federal Seed Act 1939
      • 1940s-1960s Federal Laws on Invasive Species
      • 1970s Federal Laws on Invasive Species
      • 1980s Federal Laws on Invasive Species
      • 1990s Federal Laws on Invasive Species
      • 2000-2010 Federal Laws on Invasive Species
      • 2011-2022 Federal Laws on Invasive Species
      • Federal Bills on Invasive Species not passed
      • Executive Orders on Invasive Species
      • Federal Excise Taxes
    • State Laws and Lists of Noxious Weeds
    • My Inspirations
  • Why we need plants
    • Native Plants
    • Plant Resources
  • Invasive Success Hypotheses
    • Unified Framework
    • Role of Diversity >
      • How Ecosystems Maintain Diversity
      • Fluctuation Dependent Mechanisms
      • Competition-based coexistence mechanisms
      • Niche Differences
      • Species Richness
    • Enemy Release Hypothesis
    • Constitutive Defense Mechanisms
    • Evolution of Increased Competitive Ability
    • Role of Microbes
    • Indirect Defense Mechanisms
    • Novel weapons hypothesis
    • Evolutionary Shifts
    • Resource Allocation
    • Evolutionary Dynamics >
      • Pre-introduction evolutionary history
      • Sampling Effect
      • Founder Effect
      • Admixture, hybridization and polyploidization
      • Rapid Evolution
      • Epigenetics
      • Second Genomes
    • Role of Hybridization
    • Role of Native Plant Neighbors
    • Species Performance
    • Role of Herbivory
    • Evolutionary Reduced Competitive Ability
    • Summary Thoughts on Research
  • Historical Record
    • Regional Conferences
    • Timeline
  • Innovative Solutions
    • Agricultural Best Practices >
      • Ecologically based Successional Management
      • Perennial Crops, Intercropping, beneficial insects
      • Natural Farming
      • Permaculture
      • Organic Farming
      • Embedding Natural Habitats
      • Conservation Tillage
      • Crop Rotation
      • Water Use Practices
      • Tree Planting: Pros & Cons
    • Grazing Solutions >
      • Sheep and Goat Grazing
      • Cattle & Sheep Grazing
      • Cattle and Bison Grazing
      • Grazing and Revegetation
    • Rangeland Restoration >
      • Federal Goals for Rangelands
      • Novel Ecosystems
      • Prairie Restoration >
        • Prairie Restoration Workshop
        • Weed Prevention Areas
        • California grassland restoration
        • Selah: Bamberger Ranch Preserve
      • Sagebrush Steppe Restoration >
        • Low Nitrogen in Sagebrush Steppe
      • Revegetation with Native Plants
      • Dogs as detectors of noxious weeds
    • Nudges
  • Biological Control
    • Insects as Biocontrol >
      • Impacts of Biocontrol Agents on Non-Target Species
      • Indirect Impact of Biocontrol on Native Species
    • Challenges of Using Biocontrols >
      • DNA studies on Biocontrol Insects
      • Biocontrol takes time
    • Prioritization process for Biocontrol Programs
    • Evolutionary changes impact Biocontrol
    • Vertebrates as Biocontrol Agents
  • Herbicides: History and Impacts
    • Effectiveness of Herbicides in Agricultural Lands
    • Effectiveness of Herbicides in Rangelands
    • History of Use of Herbicides and Pesticides Prior to and During WWII
    • Herbicide use during and post-World War II >
      • 2,4-D Herbicide Use
      • 2,4-D and 2,4,5-T, post-World War II
    • Modern use of Herbicides >
      • Atrazine Herbicide
      • Dicamba Herbicide
      • Glyphosate Herbicide
      • Paraquat Dichloride
      • Picolinic acid family of herbicides >
        • Picloram (Tordon 22K) Herbicide
        • Triclopyr Herbicide
    • Herbicide Resistance in Invasive Plants >
      • Herbicide Resistant Crops
      • Controlling herbicide-resistant weeds in herbicide-resistant crops
      • Best Management Practices
    • Myth of the Silver Bullet
    • Myth of Eradication
    • Merging of Agrochemical Companies
    • Impacts of Pesticides on Environment and Human Health >
      • Pesticide Drift
      • Impacts of Pesticides on Biological Diversity
      • Impacts of Herbicides on Native Plants
      • Pesticide Impacts on Insects >
        • Butterflies: The Impacts of Herbicides
        • Monarch Butterflies: Impacts of Herbicides
      • Impacts of Pesticides on Wildlife >
        • Reptiles & Amphibians: Pesticide Impacts
      • Pesticide Residue in Foods
    • Funding for Research on Pesticides
    • Commentary on Herbicide Use
  • Interviews
    • Interviews Biocontrol >
      • Biocontrol Wyoming
      • Montana Biocontrol Interview Maggio
      • Montana Biocontrol Interview Breitenfeldt
    • California Interviews >
      • Robert Price
      • Doug Johnson
    • Colorado Interviews >
      • George Beck Interview
      • Scott Nissen Interview
    • Idaho Interviews >
      • Purple Sage Organic Farms in Idaho
    • Montana Interviews >
      • Jasmine Reimer Interview Montana
      • Organic Farms Montana Interviews
    • Texas Interviews
    • Washington Interviews >
      • Ray Willard
    • Wyoming Interviews >
      • Slade Franklin Interview
      • John Samson Interview
    • Wyoming Weed and Pest Districts >
      • Josh Shorb Interview
      • Slade Franklin Interview 2
      • Lars Baker Interview
      • Steve Brill Interview
      • George Hittle Interview
      • Peter Illoway Interview
      • Robert Jenn Interview
      • Sharon Johnson Interview
      • Larry Justesen Interview
      • Gale Lamb Interview
      • Stephen McNamee Interview
      • Allen Mooney Interview
      • Rob Orchard Interview
      • Robert Parsons Interview
      • Dick Sackett Interview
      • Comments by Delena
    • NRCS Interviews: Wyoming
  • Western Weed Control Conference 1940s Minutes
    • 1942 Conference
    • 1945 Conference
    • 1946 Conference
  • Who am I?
    • My Work
    • My Adventures
    • Contact Page
  • Road Logs
    • Colorado Road Logs
    • Idaho Road Logs
    • Montana Road Logs
    • New Mexico Road Logs
    • Texas Road Logs
    • Wyoming Road Logs
  • Bibliography

Climate Change
Impacts on Crops

Photo: Farmland, Eastern Washington. © 2007 Delena Norris-Tull.

The Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Crops


Research summary and commentary by Dr. Delena Norris-Tull, Professor Emerita of Science Education, University of Montana Western, October 2021.
​
​The current economic system “favours the short term over the long term” (Dahl, 1996, p. 22). The short-term economic view often creates long-term problems. “For instance, reforestation projects favour fast-growing trees to produce a quick return on investment” (Dahl, 1996, p. 22).
 
The 2016 report, Climate change and food security: risks and responses, published by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations states that (page 1), “The effects of climate change on our ecosystems are already severe and widespread, and ensuring food security in the face of climate change is among the most daunting challenges facing humankind. While some of the problems associated with climate change are emerging gradually, action is urgently needed now in order to allow enough time to build resilience into agricultural production systems… FAO estimates that, to satisfy the growing demand driven by population growth and diet changes, food production will have to increase by at least 60 percent in the next decades… It is estimated that 500 million smallholder farms in the developing world are supporting almost 2 billion people.”
 
“When (climate) conditions change, even slightly, even in a direction that could seem more favourable, the plants and animals present will be impacted, some will become less productive, or even disappear. Some of these impacts can be easily predicted…Others are more complex to predict, like the effect of a certain climatic change on a whole ecosystem, because each element will react differently and interact with the other. For example, many cultivated plants react favourably, in controlled conditions, to an increase of CO2 in the atmosphere. But at the same time, many weeds also react favourably. The results, in the field, can be an increase or decrease in yield, of the cultivated plant depending on weeds competing for nutrients and water and on remedial agricultural practices. Pests and diseases are likely to move, following climate change, thus arriving in areas less prepared to them, biologically and institutionally, with potentially higher negative impacts” (FAO, 2016, page 3).
 
As climates change, these changes will cause changes in water availability. Some areas will become drier, suffering more severe drought. Currently cultivated plants that require large amounts of water may soon become insupportable. While crops in other areas, impacted by increased occurrences of severe weather, including hurricanes, will not be well adapted to sudden severe rainfall. And root crops, such as potatoes and beets, that rely on agricultural practices that encourage soil loss, may quickly become a food of the past. Rises in sea level will create coastal zones with soils high in salinity. Both crop species and native plants not adapted to saline soils will disappear. Pollinators not adapted to the changes in climate will also be at risk.

A CBS News story, “With climate change, crops migrate north,” dated November 20, 2022, reports on farmers in Georgia who are already changing their crops to accommodate temperature increases. Georgia farmers, famous for their peach production, are finding that it is already becoming difficult to grow some varieties of peaches that far north. Peaches require late fall frosts and freezes, weather phenomenon that are occurring less often. Instead, at least one central Georgia farmer, Joe Franklin, is now successfully growing citrus trees (grapefruit, Meyer lemons, mandarins, and mangoes), crops that previously were only grown further south, in southern Florida, California, and Texas.
 
The Global Commission on Adaptation Flagship Report (Adapt now: A global call for leadership on climate resilience, dated September 13, 2019), states the following in the Executive Summary (p. 3):
  • “Without adaptation, climate change may depress growth in global agriculture yields up to 30 percent by 2050. The 500 millions small farms around the world with be most affected.
  • The number of people who may lack sufficient water, at least one month per year, will soar from 3.6 billion today to more than 5 billion by 2050.
  • Rising seas and greater storm surges could force hundreds of millions of people in coastal cities from their homes, with a total cost to coastal urban areas of more than $1 trillion each year by 2050.
  • Climate change could push more than 100 million people within developing countries below the poverty line by 2030.”
 
Their research finds that, “investing $1.8 trillion globally in five areas from 2020 to 2030 could generate $7.1 trillion in total net benefits. In other words, failing to seize the economic benefits of climate adaptation with high-return investments would undermine trillions of dollars in potential growth and prosperity. The five areas we considered for this estimate are early warning systems, climate-resilient infrastructure, improved dryland agriculture crop production, global mangrove protection, and investments in making water resources more resilient.” This 90-page report provides recommendations for ways to improve these five areas.
 
The world is ill-prepared to respond to the reality that climate change will “fundamentally alter global food production patterns… (While) some high latitude regions are expected to benefit…from higher temperatures and longer growing seasons… other environmental conditions, such as soil quality issues in the far north, will likely constrain expansion” (FAO, 2016, page 8).

It is clear that, globally, nations will have to develop more sustainable agricultural systems and more diverse crops. Refer to the section within this website titled "The Dust Bowl Revisited," for more information on the future of agriculture. Particularly, note the section on the book Natural Capitalism.

In a 2022 report that assesses the potential effects of climate change on crops in southern Africa, Agricultural and food system resilience: Increasing capacity & resiliency, researchers from Europe and Africa worked with the Global Challenges Research Fund to develop a programme, GCRF-AFRICAP, to enable food producers to assess the impacts that climate change may have on local food production, and to recommend strategies to improve local long-term production outlooks. They conducted their research in four countries: Malawi, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zambia. The 80-member team developed an online tool, iFeed, to assist countries in assessing the potential impacts climate change may have on local food production, and to recommend strategies to minimize the damaging effects of climate change.

The GCRF-AFRICAP team identified the following trends (page 34): 
  • "Nutritional deficiencies can be reduced by 2050, although this requires substantial increases to crop yields. Without these increases, nutritional improvements will require agricultural areas to expand and/or increased food imports. 
  • Maize crop failure rates could increase by more than 50% by 2050 under the most optimistic future climate scenarios... and more than double under the worse-case scenarios... Average maize yields could fall by as much as a quarter under some scenarios. 
  • Farmers are already seeing increasing impacts on crop production due to pests and diseases, in places accounting for nearly a third of annual yield losses. 
  • Increases in precipitation intensities will likely increase soil erosion in Tanzania and Malawi, negatively impacting agricultural yields.
  • Drought and high temperatures in Malawi, Tanzania, and Zambia will increase the cyanide toxicity of cassava, making it harder to process into safe, edible forms. 
  • Although the impacts of climatic changes will be felt differently by different communities, owing to differing exposures, vulnerabilities, and capacities to adapt, female smallholders will be disproportionately affected."

​To avoid the devastating effects of nutritional deficiencies and crop failures, the GCRF-AFRICAP team recommended the following:
  • "Investing in climate services; supporting climate-smart agriculture (CSA) practices; improving water management; and aligning and coordinating nutrition, agricultural, and economic development objectives. If policy processes are not integrated, incoherence will exacerbate land-use conflicts, environmental degradation, and climate change.
  • Supporting long-term capacity building interventions at sub-national levels, including targeted support for the most vulnerable groups. Such measures can improve adoption of CSA practices and technologies.
  • Linking seed systems to long-term climate information to make them more resilient. Identifying future conditions can inform trade-offs in crop breeding, such as between shortening growing seasons and increasing temperatures.
  • Diversifying crop production and increasing imports of nutrient-dense foods. This will enable more diverse diets and achieve nutrition security in the face of increasing demographic and environmental pressures in the coming decades.
  • Proactive efforts to strengthen tools, networks and capacities, across a broad spectrum of stakeholders, to share knowledge and develop integrated solutions."

References:
  • Dahl, A.L. (1996). The Eco Principle: Ecology and Economics in Symbiosis. Oxford: George Ronald Publisher.
  • Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. (2016). Climate change and food security: risks and responses. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.
  • GCRF-AFRICAP. (March 2022). Agricultural and food system resilience: Increasing capacity and advising policy. Global Challenges Research Fund.
  • Global Commission on Adaptation. (September 13, 2019). Adapt now: A global call for leadership on climate resilience. Global Center on Adaptation & World Resources Network. Final Report.
    https://gca.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/GlobalCommission_Report_FINAL.pdf
  • Tracy, Ben (November 20, 2022), With climate change, crops migrate north. CBS News Sunday Morning.
    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/with-climate-change-crops-migrate-north/

Next Sections:
  • Climate Change Impacts on C4 Plants
  • Climate Change Impacts on Rangeland
  • What are we doing?
Copyright: Dr. Delena Norris-Tull, July 2020. Management of Invasive Plants in the Western USA.

These webpages are always under construction. I welcome corrections and additions to any page.
​Send me an email, and I can send you the original Word format version of any page you wish to correct.
contact Dr. Norris-Tull
Bibliography
who am i?
My work
my inspirations
my adventures
  • Defining the Problem
    • What is a Weed? >
      • Federal Definitions of Noxious Weeds
    • Costs of invasive plants
    • Human Factor
    • Challenges of Invasive Plants
    • Wildfires in the Western USA >
      • Forest Fires: Structure
      • Bark Beetles & Forest Ecosystems
      • Rangeland Fires
    • Climate Change Impacts on Plants >
      • Climate Change: CO2, NO, UV, Ozone Impacts on Plants
      • Climate Change Impacts on Crops
      • Climate Change Impacts on C4 Plants
      • Climate Change Impacts on Rangeland
    • What are we doing?
  • Focus of this Project
    • Why Western States? >
      • Audience for these reports
    • History: Are we doomed to repeat it? >
      • Dust Bowl Re-visited >
        • China: Past & Present
        • UN Biodiversity Report
    • Policy vs. Practice
    • Ecosystems & Economics >
      • Reductionist Approach to science
      • Ecology & Feminism
      • Systems View of Life
      • Ecosystems Health
      • Economic Growth
      • Impact of the Petrochemical Industry
      • Interrelation of Economics & Ecology
    • Federal Agencies >
      • Federal Agencies and Invasive Species
      • History of Coordination with States
      • Challenges of Coordination between Federal Agencies
      • Collaboration or Confusion
    • Organizations to assist landowners
    • Federal Legislation on Invasive Species >
      • 1930s Federal Laws on Invasive Species
      • Federal Seed Act 1939
      • 1940s-1960s Federal Laws on Invasive Species
      • 1970s Federal Laws on Invasive Species
      • 1980s Federal Laws on Invasive Species
      • 1990s Federal Laws on Invasive Species
      • 2000-2010 Federal Laws on Invasive Species
      • 2011-2022 Federal Laws on Invasive Species
      • Federal Bills on Invasive Species not passed
      • Executive Orders on Invasive Species
      • Federal Excise Taxes
    • State Laws and Lists of Noxious Weeds
    • My Inspirations
  • Why we need plants
    • Native Plants
    • Plant Resources
  • Invasive Success Hypotheses
    • Unified Framework
    • Role of Diversity >
      • How Ecosystems Maintain Diversity
      • Fluctuation Dependent Mechanisms
      • Competition-based coexistence mechanisms
      • Niche Differences
      • Species Richness
    • Enemy Release Hypothesis
    • Constitutive Defense Mechanisms
    • Evolution of Increased Competitive Ability
    • Role of Microbes
    • Indirect Defense Mechanisms
    • Novel weapons hypothesis
    • Evolutionary Shifts
    • Resource Allocation
    • Evolutionary Dynamics >
      • Pre-introduction evolutionary history
      • Sampling Effect
      • Founder Effect
      • Admixture, hybridization and polyploidization
      • Rapid Evolution
      • Epigenetics
      • Second Genomes
    • Role of Hybridization
    • Role of Native Plant Neighbors
    • Species Performance
    • Role of Herbivory
    • Evolutionary Reduced Competitive Ability
    • Summary Thoughts on Research
  • Historical Record
    • Regional Conferences
    • Timeline
  • Innovative Solutions
    • Agricultural Best Practices >
      • Ecologically based Successional Management
      • Perennial Crops, Intercropping, beneficial insects
      • Natural Farming
      • Permaculture
      • Organic Farming
      • Embedding Natural Habitats
      • Conservation Tillage
      • Crop Rotation
      • Water Use Practices
      • Tree Planting: Pros & Cons
    • Grazing Solutions >
      • Sheep and Goat Grazing
      • Cattle & Sheep Grazing
      • Cattle and Bison Grazing
      • Grazing and Revegetation
    • Rangeland Restoration >
      • Federal Goals for Rangelands
      • Novel Ecosystems
      • Prairie Restoration >
        • Prairie Restoration Workshop
        • Weed Prevention Areas
        • California grassland restoration
        • Selah: Bamberger Ranch Preserve
      • Sagebrush Steppe Restoration >
        • Low Nitrogen in Sagebrush Steppe
      • Revegetation with Native Plants
      • Dogs as detectors of noxious weeds
    • Nudges
  • Biological Control
    • Insects as Biocontrol >
      • Impacts of Biocontrol Agents on Non-Target Species
      • Indirect Impact of Biocontrol on Native Species
    • Challenges of Using Biocontrols >
      • DNA studies on Biocontrol Insects
      • Biocontrol takes time
    • Prioritization process for Biocontrol Programs
    • Evolutionary changes impact Biocontrol
    • Vertebrates as Biocontrol Agents
  • Herbicides: History and Impacts
    • Effectiveness of Herbicides in Agricultural Lands
    • Effectiveness of Herbicides in Rangelands
    • History of Use of Herbicides and Pesticides Prior to and During WWII
    • Herbicide use during and post-World War II >
      • 2,4-D Herbicide Use
      • 2,4-D and 2,4,5-T, post-World War II
    • Modern use of Herbicides >
      • Atrazine Herbicide
      • Dicamba Herbicide
      • Glyphosate Herbicide
      • Paraquat Dichloride
      • Picolinic acid family of herbicides >
        • Picloram (Tordon 22K) Herbicide
        • Triclopyr Herbicide
    • Herbicide Resistance in Invasive Plants >
      • Herbicide Resistant Crops
      • Controlling herbicide-resistant weeds in herbicide-resistant crops
      • Best Management Practices
    • Myth of the Silver Bullet
    • Myth of Eradication
    • Merging of Agrochemical Companies
    • Impacts of Pesticides on Environment and Human Health >
      • Pesticide Drift
      • Impacts of Pesticides on Biological Diversity
      • Impacts of Herbicides on Native Plants
      • Pesticide Impacts on Insects >
        • Butterflies: The Impacts of Herbicides
        • Monarch Butterflies: Impacts of Herbicides
      • Impacts of Pesticides on Wildlife >
        • Reptiles & Amphibians: Pesticide Impacts
      • Pesticide Residue in Foods
    • Funding for Research on Pesticides
    • Commentary on Herbicide Use
  • Interviews
    • Interviews Biocontrol >
      • Biocontrol Wyoming
      • Montana Biocontrol Interview Maggio
      • Montana Biocontrol Interview Breitenfeldt
    • California Interviews >
      • Robert Price
      • Doug Johnson
    • Colorado Interviews >
      • George Beck Interview
      • Scott Nissen Interview
    • Idaho Interviews >
      • Purple Sage Organic Farms in Idaho
    • Montana Interviews >
      • Jasmine Reimer Interview Montana
      • Organic Farms Montana Interviews
    • Texas Interviews
    • Washington Interviews >
      • Ray Willard
    • Wyoming Interviews >
      • Slade Franklin Interview
      • John Samson Interview
    • Wyoming Weed and Pest Districts >
      • Josh Shorb Interview
      • Slade Franklin Interview 2
      • Lars Baker Interview
      • Steve Brill Interview
      • George Hittle Interview
      • Peter Illoway Interview
      • Robert Jenn Interview
      • Sharon Johnson Interview
      • Larry Justesen Interview
      • Gale Lamb Interview
      • Stephen McNamee Interview
      • Allen Mooney Interview
      • Rob Orchard Interview
      • Robert Parsons Interview
      • Dick Sackett Interview
      • Comments by Delena
    • NRCS Interviews: Wyoming
  • Western Weed Control Conference 1940s Minutes
    • 1942 Conference
    • 1945 Conference
    • 1946 Conference
  • Who am I?
    • My Work
    • My Adventures
    • Contact Page
  • Road Logs
    • Colorado Road Logs
    • Idaho Road Logs
    • Montana Road Logs
    • New Mexico Road Logs
    • Texas Road Logs
    • Wyoming Road Logs
  • Bibliography