Photo: Farmland, Eastern Washington. © 2007 Delena Norris-Tull.
The Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Crops
Research summary and commentary by Dr. Delena Norris-Tull, Professor Emerita of Science Education, University of Montana Western, October 2021.
The current economic system “favours the short term over the long term” (Dahl, 1996, p. 22). The short-term economic view often creates long-term problems. “For instance, reforestation projects favour fast-growing trees to produce a quick return on investment” (Dahl, 1996, p. 22).
The 2016 report, Climate change and food security: risks and responses, published by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations states that (page 1), “The effects of climate change on our ecosystems are already severe and widespread, and ensuring food security in the face of climate change is among the most daunting challenges facing humankind. While some of the problems associated with climate change are emerging gradually, action is urgently needed now in order to allow enough time to build resilience into agricultural production systems… FAO estimates that, to satisfy the growing demand driven by population growth and diet changes, food production will have to increase by at least 60 percent in the next decades… It is estimated that 500 million smallholder farms in the developing world are supporting almost 2 billion people.”
“When (climate) conditions change, even slightly, even in a direction that could seem more favourable, the plants and animals present will be impacted, some will become less productive, or even disappear. Some of these impacts can be easily predicted…Others are more complex to predict, like the effect of a certain climatic change on a whole ecosystem, because each element will react differently and interact with the other. For example, many cultivated plants react favourably, in controlled conditions, to an increase of CO2 in the atmosphere. But at the same time, many weeds also react favourably. The results, in the field, can be an increase or decrease in yield, of the cultivated plant depending on weeds competing for nutrients and water and on remedial agricultural practices. Pests and diseases are likely to move, following climate change, thus arriving in areas less prepared to them, biologically and institutionally, with potentially higher negative impacts” (FAO, 2016, page 3).
As climates change, these changes will cause changes in water availability. Some areas will become drier, suffering more severe drought. Currently cultivated plants that require large amounts of water may soon become insupportable. While crops in other areas, impacted by increased occurrences of severe weather, including hurricanes, will not be well adapted to sudden severe rainfall. And root crops, such as potatoes and beets, that rely on agricultural practices that encourage soil loss, may quickly become a food of the past. Rises in sea level will create coastal zones with soils high in salinity. Both crop species and native plants not adapted to saline soils will disappear. Pollinators not adapted to the changes in climate will also be at risk.
The world is ill-prepared to respond to the reality that climate change will “fundamentally alter global food production patterns… (While) some high latitude regions are expected to benefit…from higher temperatures and longer growing seasons… other environmental conditions, such as soil quality issues in the far north, will likely constrain expansion” (FAO, 2016, page 8).
The bottom line, thus, is that the world will have to quickly develop alternative crops. Refer to the section titled "The Dust Bowl Revisited," for more information the future of agriculture. Particularly, note the section on the book Natural Capitalism.
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The Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Crops
Research summary and commentary by Dr. Delena Norris-Tull, Professor Emerita of Science Education, University of Montana Western, October 2021.
The current economic system “favours the short term over the long term” (Dahl, 1996, p. 22). The short-term economic view often creates long-term problems. “For instance, reforestation projects favour fast-growing trees to produce a quick return on investment” (Dahl, 1996, p. 22).
The 2016 report, Climate change and food security: risks and responses, published by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations states that (page 1), “The effects of climate change on our ecosystems are already severe and widespread, and ensuring food security in the face of climate change is among the most daunting challenges facing humankind. While some of the problems associated with climate change are emerging gradually, action is urgently needed now in order to allow enough time to build resilience into agricultural production systems… FAO estimates that, to satisfy the growing demand driven by population growth and diet changes, food production will have to increase by at least 60 percent in the next decades… It is estimated that 500 million smallholder farms in the developing world are supporting almost 2 billion people.”
“When (climate) conditions change, even slightly, even in a direction that could seem more favourable, the plants and animals present will be impacted, some will become less productive, or even disappear. Some of these impacts can be easily predicted…Others are more complex to predict, like the effect of a certain climatic change on a whole ecosystem, because each element will react differently and interact with the other. For example, many cultivated plants react favourably, in controlled conditions, to an increase of CO2 in the atmosphere. But at the same time, many weeds also react favourably. The results, in the field, can be an increase or decrease in yield, of the cultivated plant depending on weeds competing for nutrients and water and on remedial agricultural practices. Pests and diseases are likely to move, following climate change, thus arriving in areas less prepared to them, biologically and institutionally, with potentially higher negative impacts” (FAO, 2016, page 3).
As climates change, these changes will cause changes in water availability. Some areas will become drier, suffering more severe drought. Currently cultivated plants that require large amounts of water may soon become insupportable. While crops in other areas, impacted by increased occurrences of severe weather, including hurricanes, will not be well adapted to sudden severe rainfall. And root crops, such as potatoes and beets, that rely on agricultural practices that encourage soil loss, may quickly become a food of the past. Rises in sea level will create coastal zones with soils high in salinity. Both crop species and native plants not adapted to saline soils will disappear. Pollinators not adapted to the changes in climate will also be at risk.
The world is ill-prepared to respond to the reality that climate change will “fundamentally alter global food production patterns… (While) some high latitude regions are expected to benefit…from higher temperatures and longer growing seasons… other environmental conditions, such as soil quality issues in the far north, will likely constrain expansion” (FAO, 2016, page 8).
The bottom line, thus, is that the world will have to quickly develop alternative crops. Refer to the section titled "The Dust Bowl Revisited," for more information the future of agriculture. Particularly, note the section on the book Natural Capitalism.
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